Why Some People Get Picked Early

The Opportunities You Never See

Opportunities rarely show up the way people imagine they do. They’re not linear. They don’t follow process charts or marketing funnels

They appear quietly — often before you know the game has even started.

When my wife and daughters were auditioning for theater, the mantra was: out of 100 auditions, you’ll get a handful of callbacks, and eventually you’ll book a gig. You hear the same thing in sales — it’s a numbers game.

I’m going to challenge that. It’s not a numbers game. At least not like that. Most decisions aren’t made at the moment you think they do.

The hiring call, the vendor selection, the investment conversation — these events look like the starting line. They aren’t. They’re the reveal.

By the time you walk into the room (or Zoom), someone has already mentioned your name, forwarded your work, or referenced something you said months ago. The opportunity didn’t materialize because you pitched well. It materialized because your signals — the steady clues you’ve been giving off over time about how you think, how you work, and what it’s like to work with you — have been circulating long before you arrived or even knew a decision was to be made.

And when you look back, you realize something important: the real decision started well before you entered the picture.

We talk about reputation like it’s an aura or a brand or PR. It’s not.

Reputation is accumulated signals.

And people use those signals to make decisions quickly, confidently, and usually without a lot of ceremony.

Reputation Lives in Patterns

Signals can be small things, subtle but unmistakable. 

How you handle a tricky situation.
How you follow through.
How you help people think.
Whether you can untangle a problem instead of adding friction.
Whether you bring clarity into the room or confusion.

None of this feels like “reputation-building,” but this is exactly what people remember. And because people trust patterns — especially when uncertainty is high — your signals compound.

In Optimization Without Story Is Just Noise, I wrote that signals are the proof points that make you believable. I’d add this: signals make you predictable, and predictability lowers risk. And low-risk people get pulled in early. 

That’s why the same people, operators, founders, and investors keep getting tapped ahead of everyone else. They’ve earned a pattern that makes saying “yes” feel like the safest choice. 

Companies Operate The Same Way

Organizations behave just like individuals.

Some vendors get brought in months before anyone utters  “RFP.”
Some consultants get called months before an initiative has a name. 

Not because they shouted the loudest, or have the best outbound cadence; but because they’ve been sending steady, trustworthy signals consistently — responsiveness, clarity, honesty, and the ability to simplify complexity. 

I’ve written before that trust doesn’t get created in big moments. Big moments simply reveal the trust that’s already there.

Signals Validate Stories

People like to believe opportunities flow to the “best” option. They don’t. More often they flow toward the easiest option to vet.

People need evidence. Given incomplete information — and there is always incomplete information — people lean on signals they know. And they will almost always choose the person or company whose signals form a dependable, low-risk pattern.

This fits the hierarchy I shared in Optimization Without Story Is Just Noise: Story → Signals → Surfaces.

The story gets you noticed. The signals make the story credible. The surfaces — where your reputation appears — pull you into conversation long before any formal decision is made.

Berkson’s Bits

Anyone who says they "made it" alone is truly extraordinary or lying. Surround yourself with good advisors, mentors, and peers who help you sharpen your thinking.

What Am I Watching…

As my kids get older (and can I even still call them kids now?) I cherish the moments we sit down and watch together as a family. We just binged the first 4 episodes of Stranger Things, Season 5 on Netflix. No spoilers, but it may be the best season yet.

And this weekend: Wicked: For Good.

If you want to get picked early, stop polishing the story and start strengthening signals. 

Signals of clarity. Signals of stability. Signals that say “I make things easier, not harder.”

Reputation doesn’t live in your head. It lives in other people’s experience of you. When your signals line up, people don’t need a long process to choose you — they have already decided.

That’s why the best opportunities go to the people — and companies — whose reputation gets there first.

Looking forward to continuing the conversation...

Alan